FanBoardHQ

Ole Miss

University of Mississippi · 2022 · SEC

FanBoardHQ CFP
#23
Efficiency
+11.7
23rd FBS
Record
8-5
Conf. record
4-4
Conf. finish
T-5th
of 14
Ole Miss Fanboard →

Ole Miss went 8-5 and was ranked 23rd in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 21st-ranked offense was the engine, backed by a 40th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 60% of offensive plays with a 15th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 40% of plays with a 20th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-3
Q2
2-2
Q3
3-0
Q4
3-0

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Expected: 8.0 wins
Strength of Record
26th
-0.0 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
38th
full season
38th
CFP committee
Unranked
FanBoardHQ has them 3 spots higher
Conf. sched. difficulty
20th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~4.1 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs TroySun Belt#28W 2810+12.3100%26.2Q4
2vs Central ArkansasAtlantic SunW 593+30.2100%23.7Q4
3@ Georgia TechACC#76W 420+13.9100%32.9Q3
4vs TulsaAmerican Athletic#90W 3527+19.1100%2.7Q4
5vs KentuckySEC#43W 2219+8.1100%5.6Q3
6@ VanderbiltSEC#73W 5228+13.0100%21.1Q3
7vs AuburnSEC#56W 4834+8.0100%18.0Q2
8@ LSUSEC#9L 2045-8.70%-3.9Q1
9@ Texas A&MSEC#68W 3128+3.7100%12.0Q2
11vs AlabamaSEC#3L 2430-11.60%17.6Q1
12@ ArkansasSEC#38L 2742+0.20%-15.0Q2
13vs Mississippi StateSEC#16L 2224+0.10%10.2Q1
Postseason
vs Texas TechBig 12#20L 2542+1.50%-4.1Q2

13 played · 8-5. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on Ole Miss, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-11.2+8.9+29.1262433362118-41218-1510Week 0Week 17
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 20th
SR 21stYPP 16thEPA 26th
RushingEff 15th
SR 15thYPP 18thEPA 16th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 76th
SR 82ndYPP 42ndEPA 83rd
Rush defenseEff 29th
SR 37thYPP 42ndEPA 20th
Dropback rate 40%Tempo +5.9 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 30th on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 50%1st · Defense allowed: 46%1st2nd · Offense: 47%2nd · Defense allowed: 43%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 47%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 41%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 124.0Q1 · Allowed: 72.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 115.0Q2 · Allowed: 120.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 111.0Q3 · Allowed: 48.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 80.0Q4 · Allowed: 88.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledOle MissOffenseDefense
Ole Miss Offense vs Defense, 2022
Offensive EffRanked 21st
+8.1
Field position: -1.2Finishing drives: +9.2
Field position -1.2Finishing drives +9.2= +8.1
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 110th · Finishing 15th

Defensive EffRanked 40th
+3.2
Field position: +0.5Finishing drives: +2.8
Field position +0.5Finishing drives +2.8= +3.2
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 54th · Finishing 40th

2.63 points per drive on offense, 2.08 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 29.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(285)38% / 62%53%7.0
Q2(239)41% / 59%45%6.2
Q3(239)42% / 58%49%6.5
Q4(222)41% / 59%44%6.4
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(190)10.052%9.5
2nd(106)9.845%6.8
3rd(85)8.734%5.6
4th(18)5.733%2.9
All (399)46%7.7
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(270)9.948%6.2
2nd(200)6.848%5.4
3rd(99)5.358%6.2
4th(17)2.359%3.2
All (586)50%5.8

Ole Miss, all games.